First shared February 20, 2019 at the Denver Investors Dinner, held at MCA Denver. Last updated May 7, 2019.

Published February 7, 2019. Mr. President, we all want to be part of an American winning team. But *how you communicate — not just what you say, but what you don't say — makes all of the difference in the world.  The State of the Union is an Annual Update made by the President to a joint session of Congress, as prescribed by Article II, Section III of the U.S. Constitution. This edition of the Quarterly Update studied the speech and included an Open Letter to the President.

Published December 31, 2018. The Fed is a remarkable institution with over 100 years of history, established by Act of Congress in 1913 to create a more safe and stable American monetary and financial system — the Fed’s credibility has underwritten global confidence in the United States dollar — the world’s reserve currency since 1973. On December 18, 2018, the Federal Reserve, in its first year under the leadership of Chair Powell, reaffirmed its commitment to serving the American people, outside of political pressure.

Published December 7, 2018. I am bullish on the future of U.S. — Mexico relations in this Global Wave of Regionalism. Mexico is an abundant land, richly endowed with natural resources and blessed young human capital. Those with business know-how can create valuable companies, over time, with continuous investment in the people of Mexico. Go south young man!

This article was published on LinkedIn, September 20, 2018. The U.S. working class is in its best shape since 2000. President Trump campaigned on an America First strategy, and in this moment of singular American economic strength, the Administration is demonstrating to its political base, in full theatrics, the resolve to fight to Make America Great Again, and neither friend nor foe be spared. The American trade strategy is to divide and conquer by continent. First, NAFTA, then perhaps sweetheart deals for the United Kingdom and Australia, which would provide outposts into Europe and Asia, as well as the strategic encirclement of China. It's a gamble — But if the U.S. opens up China's consumer technology market, and the outcome is sustained improvement in the American economy, then it's four more years.

Published August 25, 2018. The United States Bull Market is now the longest lasting on record. Moreover, the strengthening U.S. economy is boosting the consumer and outlook for spending which will support economic growth. This quarterly update asks: "What must happen to sustain this Bull?"

Published June 30, 2018. The World Cup Update — The Great Power Games. The Korea Update: Nothing. President Xi could help denuclearize the Korean peninsula, but why bother until there is a resolution to the Trade War? The U.S. economy is breaking away from the rest of the world, by posting 2.8% GDP growth in Q2 2018. For the first time, there are more job openings than unemployed Americans. Meanwhile, the Fed is planning to Normalize its balance sheet later this year.

Was to be Published May 5, 2018 — The Mexico report was finally completed and published on December 7, 2018 in support of the new North America free trade agreement now called the United States — Mexico — Canada Agreement "Economic History of Mexico and the United States"

Published April 18, 2018. Special Trade War Update | Act II. China, Retaliation and Return to Tian Xia. China was the world's original superpower, China boasted unrivaled economic power and cultural influence, for most of recorded history. However, China's dominance was disrupted by superior Western military technology during the Opium Wars of the 19th century. What does China want? — Respect and a return to global leadership.

Published March 30, 2018. Special Trade War Update | Act I. United States Domestic Political Economy. The Trump Administration opened the Trade War with China by placing Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum.

Published March 30, 2018. This update is a tribute to Bill Watterson, creator of Calvin and Hobbes. America's Middle Class has been shrinking after decades of dwindling income growth. So far in 2018, the U.S. Economy is showing signs of strength, and sustained consumer confidence could start a positive feedback loop in our service economy — but it is a delicate balance. I would become very bullish on signs of sustained growth in real wages. The wild card and key risk is the Trade War.

Published in January 26, 2018 after Observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. — "The Chief Business of the American People is Business." Will the performance of the stock market during Trump Administration be more like Calvin Coolidge or Herbert Hoover? This quarterly update asks: "What if the U.S. middle class earned decent wage growth?"

Published in December 2017. Game of Thrones reference is to idea that Normalization Is Coming. More on the Big Picture. The Greatest Bull Market in Bonds created a bull market in all asset classes and consumer net worth is at an all-time high. The Winter Update asked: “What happens when Federal Reserve begins the normalization of monetary policy?”

Published in October 2017. The picture of the U.S. Economy is a Financial Rorschach. It has almost been one year since the Election of 2016 — Trick or Treat! This quarterly update looks at The Big Picture and how it impacts The Situation on Wall Street. The Greatest Bull Market in Bonds fueled a bull run in all asset classes, and now the Fed wants to Normalize monetary policy. Meanwhile, The Situation on Main Street has been a big consumer squeeze.

Published in September 22, 2017. This year we had three of the five costliest hurricanes on record: Harvey, Irma and Maria. The environment is changing. This quarterly update looks at The Big Picture and how it impacts The Situation on Wall Street. The Greatest Bull Market in Bonds fueled a bull run in all asset classes, and now the Fed wants to Normalize monetary policy. Meanwhile, The Situation on Main Street has been a big consumer squeeze.

Published on August 20, 2017. The Total Solar Eclipse of 2017 occurred on August 21. This quarterly update looks at The Big Picture and how it impacts The Situation on Wall Street. The Greatest Bull Market in Bonds fueled a bull run in all asset classes, and now the Fed wants to Normalize monetary policy. Meanwhile, The Situation on Main Street has been a big consumer squeeze.

Published August 5, 2017 on LinkedIn. "Nothing Makes Sense Anymore" — This essay laments that the stock market averages are making new all-time highs despite signs of a softening economy and murmurings from a tightening Fed. Meanwhile, the VIX was making all-time lows…

Published November 2, 2016. This editorial was published by Marketwatch. The U.S. economy remained stuck at two percent growth. The Fed is using unconventional monetary policy to target the asset side of the consumer balance sheet. The Fed believed that a strong stock market would create a wealth effect which would stimulate consumer spending. By the end of 2016, the stock market had returned to all-time highs, but the economy remained sluggish. When the Fed admitted that it was considering buying stocks directly, I took to the pen. I argued that QE was not working and offered a suggestion. The Fed should use its balance to refinance, or retire, student loan debt.

Published November 2016. This essay studies the political effect of The New Normal. President Trump's shocking victory came from middle class voters in America's industrial Midwest, the "Rust Belt." The 2016 Election had populist echoes of the "America First" rhetoric of William Jennings Bryan in the election of 1896.