Summer Update
The Quarterly Update series was created to demystify Economics and Investing. First published on March 30, 2017. Last updated on June 30, 2018.
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Korea Update
Still the Canary in the Great Power Coal Mine
On April 27, 2018, to great ceremony, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walked across the DMZ, stepping over an unguarded line. It was the first time since the Korean War that a member of his family entered the South. This summit raised hope for reunification of a people still separated politically ㅡ and there was a lot of love the air.
Korean denuclearization is made possible by the orchestration of Xi Jinping who will follow a policy of Strategic Harmonization to protect China’s economic growth engine, which must hum to soothe China’s own internal political discord.
Washington and Beijing remain on opposite sides of the world
Earlier That Day
On May 8, 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a surprise visit to China for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping. In his authoritative book, "China," Henry Kissinger suggested that Mao Zedong desired to avoid a Korean War, but Mao underestimated and under-communicated with Kim Il Sung (grandfather of Kim Jong Un) who invaded South Korea. The Korean War, never officially declared or ended, brought China into directly into military conflict with the United States. — Xi won't tolerate similar exasperation.
Xi Entices with North Korea
For China, Normalization means restoration of a historical world order they dominated for centuries. Their great regret, if I may, was lacking the technology and military strength to defend their country from marauding Western drug dealers, who demanded open market access to pedal opium for silver.
Since Deng, China has labored to build power and riches commensurate with its historical status. Since joining WTO in 2001, China has grown to become the largest economy in the world** while amassing $3 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. China achieved this under American globalist policies.
As Pax Americana transitions into its third generation, the demands placed on the global superpower became evident with a populist backlash from the heartland. Ever rational, studious, and practical, the Chinese will make accommodations to the Trump Administration, while they play the long game.
For Xi, why save the world from Nuclear weapons of mass destruction, only to suffer misery under an Economic War?
No Climax in Singapore
Lots of pomp for this unusual circumstance, but relatively little substance on the issue of denuclearization. President Trump did return home with three Americans held prisoner in North Korea.
Want De-Nuclearization and Peace?
Reciprocate Strategic Harmonization
Why Threaten Tariffs
First published March 30, 2018. President Trump won the 2016 Election by posting solid wins in Ohio and Indiana (expected victories) and capturing narrow and stunning victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trade Protectionism is a blunt policy instrument, but the message is precisely targeted to the President's base.
Trade War Update I
US: Protectionism resonates w/ the Middle Class
Path to Re-Election Runs through the Rust Belt
Steel for Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana & Ohio
Apples (Foxconn) for Wisconsin
Special Trade War Update | Act I. Domestic Politcal Economy
Trade War Update II
Xi will pursue Strategic Harmonization
China will Relent & Retaliate as Needed; China wants Clarity and Commitment
One-Time Reset of Rules is OK but Capriciousness Kills
Published April 18, 2018. President Xi has consolidated all power in China and Xi can focus on China's long term strategic goals, which will require Economic cooperation with the United States. China knows that it has won bigly since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. What President Xi wants is a clear articulation of the new rules demanded by the Trump Administration.
Special Trade War Update | Act II. China & Retaliation
Why Now?
Mohamed El-Erian introduced the concept of the New Normal. El-Erian argued that the severity of the Financial Crisis would limit economic growth potential of the United States and other Industrialized countries to 2 percent. "The dynamics coming out of the crisis management phase—particularly the combination of deleveraging, re-regulation, debt overhangs and structural challenges in key industrial countries—are combining with an accelerating secular re-alignment of the global economy to create what US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke correctly called an “unusually uncertain outlook”.
Economic Update
& The Importance of 3%
The Labor Market is Tightening
Total Unemployed peaked at 15 million during the Great Recession. Total Unemployed now number less than 6.1 million, which means 9 million people have found work.
Unemployment Rate is Nearing Historic Lows
The headline unemployment rate is 3.8%
Jobs are Plentiful
There are 6.7 million job openings, up 200% from the lows of the Great Recession
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) was created by the Department of Labor to serve as demand-side indicators of labor shortages at the national level. Prior to JOLTS, there was no economic indicator of the unmet demand for labor with which to assess the presence or extent of labor shortages in the United States. The availability of unfilled jobs—the job openings rate—is an important measure of the tightness of job markets, parallel to existing measures of unemployment.
There are More Job Openings than Unemployed Americans
It has never been a better time to find a job
Incomes are Growing Again, Trump Tax Cuts Help Too
Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, Personal Income growth in the United States, as illustrated by the Red Arc, has been fading. Recently, under the Trump administration income growth has rebounded to +3.6% in May 2018. Following the Tax Reform of 2017, many American corporations announced $1,000 bonus payments to their rank and file employees. In 2018, individual tax cuts take effect.
Income Fuels the Consumer Economy
But Consumer Sentiment Drives It
Of Concern, Consumer Confidence has Flattened
The Consumer Conference Board survey asks respondents to assess current business conditions and appraise their own income prospects.
It’s Good Now — but What Matters Is the Future
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence score is a blend of the survey respondents' assessment of the Present Situation as well as Future Expectations
Consumers Respond to Future Expectations
The Present Situation is good and readings are nearing cycle highs. However, consumers seem increasingly cautious regarding their Future Expectations
Technology Once Enabled Labor, Now It Is Replacing It
Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Threaten Jobs Blue and White Collar Alike
As measured by the U-3 Unemployment Rate, the Economy has run out of hourly labor, but there is still a surplus of available workers. There are 4-6 million people who could enter the labor force if the job was right.
Consumer Sentiment Has Retreated from Trump Highs
Each month, 500 individuals are randomly selected from the contiguous United States (48 states plus the District of Columbia) to participate in the Surveys of Consumers. In order for the results to accurately represent the opinions of the population of the United States, it is important that each person selected participates. The questions asked cover three broad areas of consumer confidence: personal finances, business conditions, and future buying plans.
Sentiment Drives Spending
Spending Drives GDP
Stronger sales, and perhaps the fear of global supply chain disruption, will cause businesses to order more inventories, which increases economic activity.
Retail Sales Lead GDP by 2 Quarters
— Robust Retail Sales —
S
Wage Growth
Higher Wages Could Boost Confidence
Wage growth accelerated from 2% to 3% in 2015, and nearly hit 4% growth at year end 2016. However, the wage growth trend seems to be fading back down to 3%. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Struggle to Increase Paycheck by 3%
Weak labor markets after the Great Recession caused Average Hourly Earnings to languish below 2% for most of this decade. Recently Average Hourly Earnings have started to accelerate with the tightening of labor markets, but earnings have yet to growth faster than 3%. Source: Department of Commerce
Rent is Still Climbing Faster than Wages
Since the Financial Crisis, rental property values has increased significantly. This benefits owners of Rental Property, but squeezes Disposable Income for those who rent their housing.
Inflation
Note: Chair Janet Yellen noted an unusually large impact from falling cell phone plan prices, which lowered CPI by 20 basis points in 2017. This means CPI will increase to 2% in early 2018.
Reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI attempts to measure the change in prices paid by consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
The 5-Year, 5-Year (5Y5Y) is the market's guess for the 5-year outlook for inflation, 5 years in the future. This rate also influences the price for U.S. Treasury Bonds.
Interest Rates
Return to 3% Means Savings Security for Seniors
Making Saving Great Again
20-Year History of U.S. Federal Funds Rate: an American with $100,000 in savings used to earn $5,000 per year in (safe, consistent) interest income. Higher interest rates will greatly benefit savers.
The Path to 3% Wreaks Havoc on Wall Street
The red line shows the downward trajectory of ten year yield since the Internet Bubble. Since the 7% yield recorded in the mid 1990s, the 10-year bottomed at 1.5% in 2012. Financial Markets are watching like a hawk. Asset price stability will depend on the rapidity of the move to and around 3%.
The Greatest Bull Market in Bonds fueled massive Bull Markets in All Asset Classes
U.S. Household Net Worth
$100,000,000,000,000
In 1981, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury hit its generational high yield of 16% as Fed Chairman Paul Volcker tightened U.S. monetary policy to whip inflation. Since then, it has been a giant release of liquidity into financial markets.
The Stock Market
Falling interest rates boost asset prices (in all asset classes: stocks, bonds, real estate) through the discounting mechanism. By mathematical extension, zero interest rates would act as NOS (nitrous oxide system, a la Fast & the Furious).
When Boasting about Stock Market Averages, The Dow Jones Industrial Average. A former colleague of mine would refer to the shape of this strong upward trajectory as a prom night chart - it's just asymptotic!.
40-Year Old Reversal
Here's the Rub
If you’re less than Sixty, you’re a Virgin when it comes to Rising Interest Rates
The 40-Year Secular Decline In Interest Rates is Ending. From 1962 to 1979, America's insistence on both Guns and Butter (Vietnam and Lyndon Johnson's Great Society) exposed our economic flanks to the Arab Oil Embargo, and two oil shocks culminated in a nasty period of Stagflation. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker earned his spot in history with his decisive victory against inflation. In 1981, the yield on the U.S. 10-Year Bond set its generational high at 16%.
During QE, the Fed injected $5 Billion Per Day into the markets
This November, Normalization means the Fed will remove $2 Billion Per Day
Before 2008, the Federal Reserve balance sheet was a Pristine $755 billion, with the securities portfolio invested entirely in U.S. Treasuries. By 2015, the Fed balance sheet increased by 360% to $4.2 Trillion after 3 Rounds of Quantitative mEasing. Of the $3.4 Trillion increase, the Fed purchased $1.7 Trillion in Treasuries to keep short term rates low, and another $1.7 Trillion in mortgage-backed securities to stimulate the effect of an interest rate cut below zero. In 2017, the Fed began to communicate its intent to "Normalize" its balance sheet, starting in November 2018.
(Volatility)
VIX is a proxy for Fear
VIX is the measure of stock market insurance. Unless specified, VIX is associated with the S&P 500 Index. During the height of the panic in the stock market, VIX traded as high as 80, implying a 4% daily move in stock prices. Over time, the application of Unconventional Monetary Policy injected enough liquidity into the Financial Markets that stock prices themselves traded with diminished volatility.
U.S. Dollar & FX
Federal Reserve has signaled 4 or 5 interest rate increases in 2018. Meanwhile, interest rates remain negative in Europe and Japan.
In Red, the U.S. Dollar Index which peaked at 151 in 1984 and hit another high at 119 in 2001.
Capital is Flowing into U.S. Dollars
U.S. 5-Year Treasury Bonds yield 2.7%. Germany is yielding -0.3% and Japan is yielding -0.1%.
The U.S. Dollar Index is the trade-weighted basket of major foreign currencies. The Canadian Dollar is 12% of the Dollar Index. The Japanese Yen makes up another 12%. The remaining ~75% is comprised of the Euro and other European currencies.
Why Try Trade War Now?
U.S. Economy is Strengthening. U.S. Inflation is Tame.
Stronger Dollar Makes American Exports More Expensive, but also Reduces the Cost of Imports, which Lowers Inflation
Stock Market is Near its All Time High. U.S. Economic Growth is Accelerating. It's never been a better time for an American to find a job. Higher interest rates mean more disposable income for Savers.
Oil
The World's Most Important Commodity
The Path to $100
It is about the U.S. Energy Renaissance
Gold
This is a current writing project
The Path to $5,000
The Barbaric Relic